Services

Subtext Systems provides quantitative modeling, analysis, and advisory services for industrial transitions, energy systems, and systemic risk. We combine rigorous analytical methods with practical insights to support decision-making under deep uncertainty and long-range strategic planning.

IndustryPath Modeling Capabilities

IndustryPath is a multi-sector, facility-level modeling system linking industrial assets to global supply chains, commodity trade flows, and real-world policy transmission. It enables realistic assessment of competitiveness, decarbonization pathways, and transition strategies.

Facility-Level Modeling

Plant-by-plant industrial modeling, asset-level transitions, real feedstock/logistics constraints.

Global Trade Flow Simulation

Bilateral commodity flows, embodied emissions, shipping routes, and competitiveness impacts.

Policy Transmission Engine

Simulation of tariffs, subsidies, CBAM, production credits, hydrogen PTCs, and CCS incentives.

Consulting Capabilities

Industrial Decarbonization Modeling

Facility-level pathways for steel, cement, chemicals, ammonia, and refining.

Energy System & Scenario Analysis

Long-range modeling of electricity, hydrogen, fuels, and infrastructure.

Strategic Foresight & Deep Uncertainty Analysis

Long-range scenario design, deep uncertainty frameworks, and decision support for high-consequence decisions.

Risk & Uncertainty Modeling

Monte Carlo ensembles, deep uncertainty frameworks, structural sensitivity analysis.

Spatial & Cluster Analytics

Industrial cluster identification, resource mapping, and regional technology potential.

Policy & Strategy Evaluation

Quantifying impacts of subsidies, CBAM, tariffs, production credits, and industrial strategy.

Custom Model Development

Bespoke, high-resolution modeling tools and datasets tailored to client needs.

Strategic Foresight & Deep Uncertainty Analysis

We help organizations navigate long-range industrial and climate transitions using structured scenario design, quantitative modeling, and decision-support frameworks built for deep uncertainty. Our approach blends asset-level data, system models, and qualitative insight to support strategy, resilience planning, and institutional design.

Capabilities

  • Scenario ensemble design and narrative development
  • Multi-criteria pathway and trade-off analysis
  • Uncertainty quantification and stress-testing
  • Decision frameworks for contested or ambiguous futures

Domains

  • Climate transition and adaptation pathways
  • Technology and industrial adoption cycles
  • Institutional evolution and governance design
  • Whole-system transformation under deep uncertainty

How We Work

We take a collaborative approach to every engagement, working closely with clients to understand their specific challenges and decision-making needs. Our methodology emphasizes evidence-based, transparent modeling with clear documentation and reproducible workflows.

Engagements range from short strategic memos and briefings to multi-month modeling projects. We tailor our analytical frameworks to each client's context, whether supporting policy development, investment strategy, or research collaboration.

Who We Work With

Subtext Systems works with foundations, NGOs, research institutes, consultancies, and policy teams exploring industrial transition, energy systems, or uncertainty analysis.

Organizations we've delivered work for, through Subtext Systems and in prior roles:

Buro Happold • ClimateWorks Foundation • Ecojustice Canada • Environmental Defender Law Center • European Climate Foundation • Fair Steel Coalition • Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) • S-Curve Economics

Ready to Work Together?

Whether you need strategic analysis, custom modeling, or research collaboration, we're here to help. Get in touch to discuss your project.