About Subtext Systems
What we are
Subtext Systems is an independent research-and-analytics practice specializing in decision-grade, facility-level techno-economic modeling of industrial transition. The work is designed to be defensible in the rooms where serious industrial-decarbonization decisions are made.
The work is scenario-explicit and uncertainty-honest. Typical audiences are finance, engineering, legal, and regulator-facing readers who need analytical outputs that hold up under scrutiny — not thought-leadership narrative or generic sector projections.
How we work
Bottom-up, facility-level
Real industrial assets, not country averages. Plant-by-plant switching dynamics, capacity evolution, and trade flows under varying policy and geopolitical regimes.
Scenario-explicit, uncertainty-honest
We state what is optimized, ignored, and fragile. Ranges and scenarios over false precision. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis where material to the question.
Principal-led
One senior judgment across scoping, modeling, interpretation, and client-facing work. Not a delivery bench; no junior layer produces drafts for principal review.
Traceable
Source → transformation → result is recoverable for material claims. Methodology is explainable, not black-box.
Principal
Subtext Systems is led by Dr. Francis G.N. Li.
Before founding Subtext Systems in 2025, Francis's research and consulting practice spanned 20+ years through UCL Energy Institute and direct engagements with international institutions including the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, IDDRI, IISD, the Inter-American Development Bank, the International Renewable Energy Agency, ClimateWorks Foundation, and the European Climate Foundation.
His peer-reviewed work has appeared in Energy Policy, Nature Energy, Applied Energy, Energy Research & Social Science, Energy Strategy Reviews, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The research record focuses on facility-level and regional techno-economic analysis, uncertainty in energy modeling, and socio-technical energy transitions.
Collaboration
Subtext Systems works with foundations, NGOs, research institutes, consulting firms, and policy teams on industrial transition analysis and adjacent modeling work. Where a scope includes specialist mechanism design or modeling work beyond facility-level techno-economic analysis — for example, emissions-trading mechanism design or market-clearing analysis — we team or route to collaborators as appropriate.