About Subtext Systems
Mission
Subtext Systems is a research and analytics consultancy focused on high-leverage quantitative work for industrial transitions and systemic risk. We build advanced tools for risk assessment, industrial decarbonization modeling, and long-range strategic analysis. Our work combines rigorous quantitative methods with systems thinking to address complex challenges at the intersection of sustainability, resilience, and institutional change.
Approach
Our methodology emphasizes data transparency, simulation-based modeling, and open, well-documented analytics. We specialize in Monte Carlo ensemble methods, geospatial and facility-level analysis, and reproducible workflows. Each project is designed to provide decision-makers with actionable, reproducible insights while maintaining scientific rigor and analytical independence.
Capabilities
Risk Modeling & Assessment
Institutional vulnerability analysis, state fragility assessment, and systemic risk modeling using empirically grounded indicators and probabilistic frameworks.
Strategic Foresight
Long-range scenario development, transition pathway analysis, and strategic planning support for organizations navigating complex technological and social change.
Data Transparency
Open-source analytical platforms, reproducible research methodologies, and interactive visualization tools that make complex data accessible to diverse stakeholders.
Clients & Collaborators
Subtext Systems works with foundations, NGOs, research institutes, and consulting firms.
Organizations we've delivered work for, through Subtext Systems and in prior roles:
Buro Happold • ClimateWorks Foundation • Ecojustice Canada • Environmental Defender Law Center • European Climate Foundation • Fair Steel Coalition • Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) • S-Curve Economics
Leadership
Subtext Systems is led by Dr. Francis G.N. Li, a quantitative researcher and systems modeler with 20 years of experience working across academia, industry, and international climate organizations. His work has supported decision-making at ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, Ecojustice Canada, the Environmental Defender Law Center, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Collaboration
We work with research institutions, international organizations, and forward-thinking companies across sectors. Our projects often involve collaboration with domain experts in political science, environmental science, and industrial ecology. We welcome partnerships that advance understanding of systemic risks and transition pathways.