About Subtext Systems

What we are

Subtext Systems is an independent research-and-analytics practice specializing in decision-grade, facility-level techno-economic modeling of industrial transition. The work is designed to be defensible in the rooms where serious industrial-decarbonization decisions are made.

The work is scenario-explicit and uncertainty-honest. Typical audiences are finance, engineering, legal, and regulator-facing readers who need analytical outputs that hold up under scrutiny — not thought-leadership narrative or generic sector projections.

How we work

Bottom-up, facility-level

Real industrial assets, not country averages. Plant-by-plant switching dynamics, capacity evolution, and trade flows under varying policy and geopolitical regimes.

Scenario-explicit, uncertainty-honest

We state what is optimized, ignored, and fragile. Ranges and scenarios over false precision. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis where material to the question.

Principal-led

One senior judgment across scoping, modeling, interpretation, and client-facing work. Not a delivery bench; no junior layer produces drafts for principal review.

Traceable

Source → transformation → result is recoverable for material claims. Methodology is explainable, not black-box.

Principal

Subtext Systems is led by Dr. Francis G.N. Li.

Before founding Subtext Systems in 2025, Francis's research and consulting practice spanned 20+ years through UCL Energy Institute and direct engagements with international institutions including the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, IDDRI, IISD, the Inter-American Development Bank, the International Renewable Energy Agency, ClimateWorks Foundation, and the European Climate Foundation.

His peer-reviewed work has appeared in Energy Policy, Nature Energy, Applied Energy, Energy Research & Social Science, Energy Strategy Reviews, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The research record focuses on facility-level and regional techno-economic analysis, uncertainty in energy modeling, and socio-technical energy transitions.

Collaboration

Subtext Systems works with foundations, NGOs, research institutes, consulting firms, and policy teams on industrial transition analysis and adjacent modeling work. Where a scope includes specialist mechanism design or modeling work beyond facility-level techno-economic analysis — for example, emissions-trading mechanism design or market-clearing analysis — we team or route to collaborators as appropriate.